Hezbollah is Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon. By launching missile attacks against Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 it started the third war between these two antagonists in the last 40 years. Lebanon is suffering the consequences.

It is estimated that Hezbollah has 45,000 fighters, though Hezbollah has claimed it has 100,000. According to the CIA, Hezbollah may have more than 150,000 missiles and rockets of various types and ranges. These include precision-guided missiles that could target critical Israel’s civilian populations, infrastructure, and military assets.

Since Oct. 8, 2023, Hezbollah has launched over 12,000 missiles against northern Israel, an area containing 1.3 million Israelis. No country would tolerate that.

For months, Hezbollah and Israel limited themselves to tit-for-tat exchanges of fire. Israel is now carrying out aerial attacks and has sent ground troops into Lebanon. Its goal is to seriously degrade or even eliminate Hezbollah as a fighting army.

Hezbollah has a significant degree of power in Lebanon, including the strongest army, the largest functioning bank and a veto over government actions. It also provides an extensive social welfare network, especially among the Shiite population. Hezbollah has a high level of support from Shiites, but much lower support among Sunnis, Christians and Druze.

Hezbollah has a big decision to make. It is publicly committed to continuing attacks against Israel in support of Hamas. A cease-fire risks losing their credibility as a defender of Palestine. However, absent a cease-fire agreement, Hezbollah risks losing more of its rocket/missile arsenal and perhaps its total destruction as a military force. It is likely that Iran will have a strong voice in making the decision.

Lebanon: A dominant feature of Lebanese life is its social division into 18 confessional communities. Of these, the Shiite Muslims are the largest single group, but there is also are large Sunni Muslim, Christian and Druze communities. Its estimated population of 5 million has been shrinking due to a continuing exodus of citizens to other countries. In addition to Lebanese, there are about 300,000 Palestinian refugees and over a million refugees from Syria.

In territory, Lebanon is about half the size of Massachusetts. Its gross domestic product is about $30 billion. By comparison, the GDP of Massachusetts is $615 billion. Lebanon was once a prosperous country, but its economy has been shrinking since 2011. In 2019, Lebanon defaulted on its foreign debt, the biggest peacetime economic collapse since the 19th century. The Lebanese pound has lost 98% of its value. At least half of the population lives below the poverty line.

Your Daily Puzzles

Cross|Word

Flipart

Typeshift

SpellTower

Really Bad Chess

Lebanon has been in conflict for decades. The presence of the Palestine Liberation Army, “a state within a state,” helped incite a civil war among various sectarian communities from 1975 to 1990. Israel invaded in 1982 to oust the PLA and attempted to install a friendly government. Hezbollah grew into a significant force in the name of protecting Lebanon from Israel.

Two significant Hezbollah/Israel wars followed, and Lebanon has had a caretaker government for two years because Hezbollah has vetoed the appointment of a president.

In the current war, the people of Lebanon are suffering. Over 1 million people have fled to escape the fighting. More than 1,500 civilians have been killed and there has been massive damage to towns and even Beirut. Israel recently declared one-quarter of Lebanon’s territory to be an evacuation zone, meaning the residents are told to leave.

If the Hezbollah/Israel war continues, the Lebanese economy could collapse completely. Inter-communal conflict could worsen as Shiites, Sunnis, Christians and Druze fight for limited resources. They may also come into conflict with the Palestinian and Syrian refugees in the country.

There is a ray of hope: If Israel destroys Hezbollah as a factor in Lebanese life, a government might be formed that can govern effectively. Aid from the Gulf Arab states, the West and expatriate Lebanese may flow in. Natural gas off the coast may be developed. A new and functioning Lebanese government may agree to support U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. passed in 2006.

That resolution called for a full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah and Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. Under it, Hezbollah is not to have a presence south of the Litani River. A strengthened Lebanese Army and a U.N. peacekeeping force would provide a buffer zone between the Litani River and Israel.

If Israel and Hezbollah decide that a long-term cease-fire is in their interests and if a new, strong Lebanese government and a strong army are established. and if the U.N. enforces Resolution 1701 , there is hope for Lebanon’s future. If not, to my sorrow, the outlook is very grim.

Richard Fein holds a master of arts degree in political science and an MBA in economics. He can be reached at columnist@gazettenet.com.